CME ScoreBoard Header

CME Scoreboard

CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-07-26T21:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/32225/-1
CME Note: Faint partial halo seen to the S in both coronagraphs, although STEREO COR2A resumes from a data gap at 2024-07-26T22:38Z. The source for this is likely an eruption from AR 3672 centered around S22W05, observed in SDO AIA 193 starting around 2024-07-26T19:38Z. This event is closely preceded by CME 2024-07-26T20:48Z, also from AR 3672, which tracks separately from this front. Arrival signature is characterized by a sharp increase in B_total from ~5nT to ~13 and eventually to 15nT, fast fluctuation of magnetic field components, a jump in solar wind speed from 330 to 480 km/s and an increase in density from 6 to abpve 10 p/cc. The front of this CME likely merged with two preceding CMEs and with the front of a faster following CME, forming one combined front.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-07-29T23:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-07-30T00:06Z (-7.0h, +7.0h)
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NASA M2M)
Prediction Method Note:

https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/WSA-ENLIL/32228/1
Model Inputs:
2024-07-26T21:24:00-CME-001 with CME Analysis: Lon.=-1.0, Lat.=-5.0, Speed=646.0, HalfAngle=20.0, Time21.5=2024-07-27T00:52Z

Model Output:

Earth Impact:
Earth Shock Arrival Time = 2024-07-30T00:06Z (+- 7 hours)
Duration of disturbance (hr) =21.0 (+- 8 hours)
Minimum magnetopause standoff distance: Rmin(Re) = 6.6
(kp)90=3
(kp)180=5

Other Location(s) Impact:
Parker Solar Probe with esitmated shock arrival time 2024-07-28T17:49Z

Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
Inner Planets Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Kp_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_PSP_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Bepi_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Lucy_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Mars_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Merc_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_SolO_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Venus_timeline.gif
Timelines Link = http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20240727_005200_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif

Lead Time: 66.17 hour(s)
Difference: -0.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Tony Iampietro (M2M) on 2024-07-27T05:10Z

CME Scoreboard Footer

CCMC Rules of the Road: CCMC requests that users notify the CCMC, CME model/technique developers and submitting forecasters/researchers before performing event and validation studies with data from the CME Arrival Time Scoreboard. It is recommended that such studies be performed with the knowledge and collaboration of developers and submitting forecasters/researchers.

If you are looking for the official U.S. Government forecast for space weather, please go to NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center (https://swpc.noaa.gov). This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.

Curator: Chiu Wiegand | NASA Official: Dr. Masha Kuznetsova | Privacy and Security Notices | Accessibility | CCMC Data Collection Consent Agreement